Elyria, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

971
FXUS61 KCLE 152331
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Timing and impacts of thunderstorms for Saturday have become more
refined. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend with a
passing warm front with a few possible strong storms on Saturday.
Additional rain/thunderstorm chances increase again mid-week with a
cold front passage.

2) There will much warmer temperatures across the region Monday and
Tuesday being on the southern side of the warm front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Late this evening a warm front will lift north across the region
with temperatures and dew points increasing behind it. There will be
a remnant complex moving across northern Indiana up into Michigan
that will enter northern Ohio around 12Z tomorrow morning. This
feature may have some stronger storms along with it as it enters the
CWA with bulk shear of around 35-45 knots and MUCAPE values being
marginal around 500-1000 J/kg. Lapse rates will be lacking given the
time of day this feature will pass through as well.
Showers/thunderstorms may have a brief lull as the morning
precipitation exits off to the east by mid-day. In the afternoon,
there will be a weak shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley that
will help support additional showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon
into the evening. With the break in precipitation mentioned above,
there may be some opportunity for instability to increase in the
western two-thirds of the CWA and less so with the eastern portion
given showers may linger over into peak heating preventing ample
warming. Regardless, with the morning precipitation across the
region, how much the area clears out and destabilizes again will be
the main question. Though with decent flow aloft, as mentioned above
with the bulk shear, there has been a marginal risk of severe
weather introduced for the western two-thirds of northern Ohio for
Saturday. This is due to the isolated strong to damaging wind threat
across the region with the morning convection as there is less
confidence during the afternoon/evening in potential strong to
severe weather. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to exit out
to the east Saturday evening as the shortwave support moves off.

With the warm front stalling out to the north of the region by
Sunday morning, there will continue to be some shower and
thunderstorm chances, though will generally be on the low end. An
additional shortwave may pass through the region Sunday afternoon
that could help support a few more showers as well. Precipitation
chances decrease into Monday as the drier air moves into the region.

Precipitation chances return to the region mid-week as a low
pressure system enters the Great Lakes region. PoP chances will
increase Tuesday ahead of the low and with increase moisture flow.
There still some uncertainty of when the cold front will be and will
impact any thunderstorm chances across the region. Additionally,
there looks to be some potential for severe weather with this system
on Tuesday, so will need to monitor how it progresses as the forcing
with the cold front will be key to the development.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
As the warm front lifts north of the region tonight, temperatures
will begin to warm to be well above average by Monday and Tuesday.
850 temperatures will rise to 16-18C across the region that will
help support highs in the mid to upper 80s with a few spots possibly
touching 90. The warmest of the days will be Monday as there will be
clear skies allowing for temperatures to warm. Tuesday won`t be
quite as warm as cloud cover will begin to move into the region from
the west, though highs will still be around the mid 80s.
Additionally, dew points will climb as well with the increased south
to southwesterly flow across the region. Dew points will climb up
into the low to mid 60s on Monday and close to 70 on Tuesday. Not
expecting any heat related headlines for either day, though given
how early in the season it is, there will be a heat risk. From the
NWS Heat Risk product, it has been highlighting the region with
moderate heat risk for both Monday and Tuesday, and approaches major
in a few locations for heat related impacts. With moderate level
heat risk, this highlights days with increased impacts due to heat,
and to promote precautions for outdoor plans and/or those with heat
sensitivities. Temperatures will begin to moderate Wednesday as a
cold front moves through the region with precipitation expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will persist through tonight as high
pressure persists. Late tonight into early Saturday morning, a
warm front is expected to push north across the area bringing
the potential for widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles
of thunder to all terminals. Precipitation should begin around
12Z before spreading further east. As the boundary lifts north,
a strong LLJ will creep into the area, increasing winds from the
south-southwest to 12-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
possible from late morning through the afternoon. The strongest
gusts should be isolated to terminals along and west of I-71.

Another round of showers and storms is possible in the afternoon
as a cold front approaches the area from the west. This second
round of showers will bring widespread MVFR ceilings and
possible reductions in visibilities within the heaviest showers.
Cannot rule out additional thunder, however the thunder
potential will be highly dependent on how quickly the atmosphere
rebounds from earlier convection. Any storms that develop will
have strong gusty winds associated with them.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. Non-VFR to return on Tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds become south 10-20kts tonight into Saturday with a warm
front moving across the lake, then southwesterly 10-20kts
through late Saturday. Wave heights less than 2ft nearshore, but
2-4ft in the open water zones. A stationary front over Lake Erie
Sunday brings variable winds less than 10kts and waves continued
less than 2ft, and then back to offshore early next week
15-20kts Monday and Tuesday, where wave heights once again will
increase with distance from shore.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26